GTA Market Watch: February 2026 Stats Are In

Happy Friday! If you’ve been watching the Toronto real estate headlines, you’ve likely seen the latest February figures released by TRREB. The theme for early 2026? Tightening conditions and a “wait-and-see” approach from both sides of the market.

The February Numbers at a Glance

The latest data shows a unique market where activity, prices, and supply all moved lower simultaneously:

• Average Selling Price: $1,008,968 (Down 7.1% vs. Feb 2025)

• New Listings: 10,705 (Down a staggering 17.7% vs. Feb 2025)

• Total Sales: 3,868 (Down 6.3% vs. Feb 2025)

• Price Index: The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark was down 7.9% year-over-year.

What Does This Mean for You?

While it’s easy to focus on the dip in sales, the real story is the “listings crater.” Sellers are retreating even faster than buyers. According to TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld, if this trend of lower inventory continues through the spring, we are likely to see competition between homebuyers heat up again, which will naturally support a recovery in home prices.

The “Pent-Up Demand” Factor

TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer points out that there are currently over 100,000 buyers sitting on the sidelines in the GTA. They aren’t gone; they are simply waiting for prices to level off and for positive news on the trade front.

“Once we see both, there could be substantial momentum driving home sales in the second half of this year and into 2027,” says Mercer.

Looking Toward the “Missing Middle”

Beyond the monthly fluctuations, the industry is looking at long-term sustainability. TRREB CEO John DiMichele recently emphasized that the future of the GTA market depends on bridging the gap between high-rise condos and traditional single-family homes. We are seeing a strong push for “missing middle” construction to provide more attainable ownership options for families.

The Bottom Line: With average prices hovering just above the $1M mark and inventory at a significant low, we are in a period of recalibration. For buyers, this “quiet” window offers a chance to negotiate before the 100,000 buyers on the sidelines decide to jump back in. For sellers, precision pricing and presentation are now more critical than ever.

Curious how these February stats affect your specific neighborhood or property value? I’m here to help you navigate the data and find the right strategy for the spring market.

Cathy TSE | Real Estate Agent

Direct: 647-463-8810 | Email: cathy.tse@century21.ca
Instagram – Facebook –  Subscribe for News – Blog – WhatsApp